The voters appreciate independent election observers; most prefer Filipino over foreign observers in the present election

According to the SWS survey last April, most of the voters who know about independent observers in the 2004 elections say that it added much to their confidence in the honesty of the elections.

For the May 2007 elections, most voters prefer that the observers be Filipino, one-fourth prefer that they be both Filipino and foreign, and a small balance prefer that they be foreign. (More on SWS)

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SWS 2007 Pre-Election Surveys: Expected election irregularities recently simmered down somewhat – vote buying 57%, “dagdag-bawas” 45%, flying voters 41%, and harassment 30%

Expectations of different election irregularities in the upcoming Senatorial election recently simmered down somewhat, according to the last three SWS surveys. The expectations were steady between February and mid-April, but then declined from mid-April to early May. (More on SWS)

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The educational and class vote for Senator

How education matters

In the May 2-4, 2007 SWS survey, the difference of college-graduates’ choices for Senator from the national choices is that they select Escudero as No. 1, and take in Pimentel (tied for 10th) instead of Honasan (13th). [Table 1] (More on SWS)

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Most voters have studied lengthily, are deciding on their own,
will bring a list, and are already committed

For the May 14 senatorial election, most voters have been studying their choices for at least a month, are choosing on their own rather than according to partisan influences, will bring a prepared list to the polls, and are already committed to their choices. These factors have very little discernible effect on the choices of candidates for senator.(More on SWS)

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Two-thirds say the economy is the most important problem of the country,
but majority say the elections will make little or no difference in solving it

Two-thirds of the electorate say that the economy is the country’s most important problem, but majority say that the May 2007 elections will make little or no difference in solving it, according to the SWS survey of April 14-17, 2007. (More on SWS)

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Bayan Muna and Akbayan lead 17 Party-List groups
that may win 23 seats in the House

Seventeen out of 93 party-list groups, lead by BAYAN MUNA and AKBAYAN, meet the minimum 2%-rule for representation in the House of Representatives, in the PDI-SWS Pre-Election Survey of May 2-4, 2007. (More on SWS)

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AT THE SENATE HOMESTRETCH: GO 6, IND. 2, TU 4

The PDI-SWS Election Survey of May 2-4 points to six senate seats going to the Genuine Opposition (GO), two going to Independents, and four going to Team Unity (TU). As in February, March, and April, the GO holds roughly the top half of the winning seats, going into the homestretch of the campaign. (More on SWS)

Originally Posted at www.sws.org.ph

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Most Filipinos Deny Self-Interest, the Bandwagon, and Political Machinery

The great majority of Filipinos vote according to social interest rather than self-interest, follow their consciences rather than bandwagons, and believe that popularity matters more than machinery in winning an election, according to the SWS pre-election survey of April 14-17, 2007, thus showing the Filipino electorate to be independent-minded and not easy to manipulate. (More on SWS)

Originally Posted at www.sws.org.ph

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SWS Survey for Sen. Sergio Osmeña III

In view of a sponsor-authorized publication (Philippine Daily Inquirer, April 30, 2007) of a commissioned survey, SWS is now disclosing the survey’s pertinent results and technical details, for the benefit of the public. (More on SWS)

Originally Posted at www.sws.org.ph

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Overall level of public awareness of the party-list system increases; Bayan Muna continues to lead the party-list race

In the coming midterm elections, Filipino registered voters will also be voting for party-list groups that will be represented in the Lower House. At present, 59% of Filipino registered voters report awareness of the party-list mechanism – higher by 6 percentage points than the 53% figure obtained in the early April survey. Across the country’s geographic areas and socio-economic groupings, levels of public awareness of the party-list system range from 53% in Mindanao to 77% in the best-off Class ABC. This increase in the level of public awareness may be attributed in part to recent media reports as regards the alleged sale of party-list nominations, the reported ties of some party-list groups to the national administration, and the petition filed by several groups before the Supreme Court (SC) to have the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) make public the names of all party-list nominees for the May 2007 elections. (More on Puse Asia)

Originally Posted at www.pulseasia.newsmaker.ph

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Former Senator Loren Legarda still leads the senatorial race; opposition candidates continue to dominate the list of probable winners

With less than three weeks to go before the midterm elections, Filipino registered voters are identifying a mean of 8 and a median of 9 (out of a maximum of 12) of their candidates for the Philippine Senate. And if the May 2007 elections were held today, 14 of the 37 individuals seeking senatorial seats would have a statistical chance of winning. Seven of them belong to the “Genuine Opposition” (GO), five are running under the administration’s “TEAM Unity” (TU), and two are independent candidates. Former Senator Loren Legarda continues to top the list of probable winners with an overall voter preference of 59.6% for a statistical ranking of solo 1st place. (See Senatorial Voting Preferences Table). (More pn Pulse Asia)

Originally Posted at www.pulseasia.newsmaker.ph

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Most Filipinos Deny Self-Interest,
the Bandwagon, and Political Machinery

Social Weather Stations

The great majority of Filipinos vote according to social interest rather than self-interest, follow their consciences rather than bandwagons, and believe that popularity matters more than machinery in winning an election, according to the SWS pre-election survey of April 14-17, 2007, thus showing the Filipino electorate to be independent-minded and not easy to manipulate. (More on SWS)

Originally Posted at www.sws.org.ph

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13 Party-List groups meet the 2%-rule, take 21 seats

The PDI-SWS Pre-Election Survey of April 14-17 found 13 out of the 93 party-list groups satisfying the minimum 2%-rule for representation in the House of Representatives.

The thirteen groups meeting the 2%-rule are: BAYAN MUNA 10.4%, AKBAYAN 9.8%, AHON 5.8%, AANGAT TAYO (AT) 5.6%, A TEACHER 5.0%, BUHAY 4.1%, ALMANA 3.6%, AGAP 3.3%, ANAK PAWIS 3.2%, ABAKADA 2.9%, GABRIELA 2.7%, ALIF 2.6%, and ALAGAD 2.0%. (More on SWS)

Originally Posted at www.sws.org.ph

SENATE RACE STANDINGS: GO 5, IND. 1, TU 3;
3 GOs, 1 IND., 2 TUs CONTEND FOR LAST THREE SLOTS

The PDI-SWS Election Survey of April 14-17 has five Genuine Opposition (GO), one Independent, and three Team Unity (TU) candidates in statistical position to take the top nine seats in the May Senatorial election. It has three GO, one Independent, and two TU candidates in statistical contention for the last three seats. (More on SWS)

Originally Posted at www.sws.org.ph

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Although most people say their votes matter, they are divided as to
whether the Senatorial outcome will affect the country’s future

Although most Filipinos say their votes matter in determining the government they will have, at the same time they are divided as to whether the future of the country will be affected by whoever wins in the Senatorial election. (More on SWS)

Originally Posted at www.sws.org.ph
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57% have much interest in the elections;
86% say they will surely vote

Fifty-seven percent of registered voters have much interest in the coming elections, while 30% have moderate interest and 9% have only a little interest, according to the SWS February 2007 survey. (More on SWS)

Originally Posted at www.sws.org.ph
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Four out of five say that command voting does not prevail in their area

The SWS survey on electoral reform of February 2007 found 80% saying that most people in their barangay decide their vote for themselves, and only 19% saying that most are just told by the leaders whom to vote for. (More on SWS)

Originally Posted at www.sws.org.ph
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Media Release on Filipinos’ Party-List Preferences

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings from the April 2007 Pre-Election Survey on Filipinos’ Party-List Preferences. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information on Filipino perceptions, opinions, sentiments, and attitudes relating to current developments here and abroad. (More on Pulse Asia)

Originally Posted at www.pulseasia.newsmaker.ph

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Two-thirds expect orderliness at the precinct,
but half expect cheating in the counting

Two out of every three Filipinos expect the coming elections to be clean and orderly in their precinct, but, at the same time, one out of every two believe that cheating in the election for Senators might occur in the counting of votes at some level.

Orderliness at precincts

SWS has polled on expectations of orderliness in the precinct several times, as early as 1996. In the SWS poll of March 15-18, 2007, 65% of voters agreed that the coming elections in their precinct would be clean and orderly, while only 12% disagreed [Chart 1]. This was a slight increase from the previous SWS poll of February 24-27, 2007, when 60% agreed and 14% disagreed. (More on SWS)

Originally Posted at www.sws.org.ph

Media Release on Quality of Life

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings from the April 2007 Pre-Election Survey on Quality of Life. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information on Filipino perceptions, opinions, sentiments, and attitudes relating to current developments here and abroad. (More on Pulse Asia)
Originally Posted at www.pulseasia.newsmaker.ph

Plurality Prefer Opposition Candidates for
Representative, Governor, and Mayor

Leo Laroza
Social Weather Stations

Among the registered voters interviewed in the First Quarter 2007 Social Weather Survey, fielded over February 24-27, the plurality would vote for Opposition candidates, and only the minority would vote for Administration candidates for Representative, Governor, and Mayor.

The February 2007 survey also found that even among those who prefer Administration candidates, only 4 or 5 Senatorial seats will go to the Team Unity (TU).

(More on SWS)
Originally Posted at www.sws.org.ph
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Media Release on Trust Ratings of Selected Public Figures and Groups

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings from the April 2007 Pre-Election Survey on Trust Ratings of Selected Public Figures and Groups. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information on Filipino perceptions, opinions, sentiments, and attitudes relating to current developments here and abroad.
(More on Pulse Asia)
Originally Posted at www.pulseasia.newsmaker.ph
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Receptivity to Political Advertising
can Affect Votes by 5 to 10 Points

Mahar Mangahas
Social Weather Stations

Paying close attention to variation in receptivity of voters to political advertising can mean, for an average candidate, accessing from 5 to 10 more points in votes, based on comparison of voters who are at least a bit helped by political ads to those who don’t care about such ads at all.

The SWS Election Survey of March 15-18, 2007 allows segmentation of registered voters according to whether political ads give them VERY MUCH HELP (24%), SOMEWHAT MUCH HELP (31%), A LITTLE HELP (20%), or NO HELP AT ALL (21%), in deciding for whom to vote. The 4% remainder had not yet seen, heard or read any political ads in the current campaign.

(More on SWS)

Originally Posted at www.sws.org.ph
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Media Release on Filipinos’ Senatorial Preferences

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings from the April 2007 Pre-Election Survey on Filipinos’ Senatorial Preferences. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information on Filipino perceptions, opinions, sentiments, and attitudes relating to current developments here and abroad.
(More on Pulse Asia)

Originally Posted at www.pulseasia.newsmaker.ph
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THE SENATE SCORE: GENUINE OPPOSITION 6 OR 7,
TEAM UNITY 4 OR 3, INDEPENDENT 2;
LEGARDA AND VILLAR LEAD;
ANGARA IMPROVES;
SOTTO AND OSMEÑA TIE FOR 12TH

Mahar Mangahas
Social Weather Stations

The PDI-SWS Election Survey of March 15-18 shows an exact tie for 12th place, implying either six or seven Genuine Opposition (GO), two Independent, and either four or three Team Unity (TU) candidates in the nominal winning circle in the next Senatorial election.

Although this compares to seven GO, two Independent, and three TU winners in the previous SWS poll of February 24-27, TU nevertheless hardly gained, since it might also have only two winners, after allowing for statistical error. The February poll had already implied a range of two to four TU winners at that time.(More on SWS)

Originally Posted at www.sws.org.ph

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Media Release on Party-List Preferences

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings from the March 2007 Ulat ng Bayan national survey on Party-List Preferences. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information on Filipino perceptions, opinions, sentiments, and attitudes relating to current developments here and abroad.(More on Pulse Asia)

Originally Posted at www.pulseasia.newsmaker.ph
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Nine Party-List groups meet the 2% threshold;
Possible 19 out of 55 seats occupied so far

Social Weather Stations

Nine party-list groups were found meeting the minimum 2-percent rule in the First Quarter 2007 Social Weather Survey, conducted over February 24-27, 2007.

Of those registered and intending to vote, 66% or an estimated 30.9 million voters filled-up their survey ballots for the party-list, using the list obtained from Comelec, which was then the basis of the 2-percent rule.(More on SWS)

Originally Posted at www.sws.org.ph

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Media Release on Filipinos’ Senatorial Preferences

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings from the March 2007 Ulat ng Bayan national survey on Filipinos’ Senatorial Preferences. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information on Filipino perceptions, opinions, sentiments, and attitudes relating to current developments here and abroad.(More on Pulse Asia)

Originally Posted at www.pulseasia.newsmaker.ph
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7 March 2007

OPPOSITION LEADS SENATE RACE BY 9-3

Mahar Mangahas
Social Weather Stations

Opposition, in the sense of non-administration, candidates have a 9-3 lead over the administration’s “Team Unity” (TU) coalition in the Senate race, according to the regular Social Weather Survey for the First Quarter of 2007, conducted over February 24-27, using the names of all 80 persons who filed candidacy.

The winning circle

The SWS survey front-runner is Francis Pangilinan (Liberal Party), chosen by 56% of registered voters – not part of TU, although his status with the coalition “Genuine Opposition” (GO) is unclear.(More On SWS)

Originally Posted at www.sws.org.ph

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